Outside Reversal

This week I've learned that without indicators I can perform better in my trades. Anyone heard about Outside Reversal technique. It's way better than RSI, stoch, MA or other indicators.

Outside Reversal occured when the price puts in lower low and close above the previous day's close (same for higher high and then a lower low close below previous day's close.

Five Banks Bid for AIG Assets

Another batch of the riskiest mortgage-backed securities once owned by the American International Group are being auctioned off this week, according to two people familiar with the matter, a sale that would bring the insurance giant’s 2008 meltdown once step closer to a resolution.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York took control of the assets after A.I.G. was bailed out in 2008. They are being auctioned to a group of bidders that includes Credit Suisse[CS  27.35    -0.12  (-0.44%)   ], Barclays Capital, Morgan Stanley [MS  20.26    -0.25 (-1.22%)   ], Goldman Sachs [GS  115.98    -1.41 (-1.2%)   ] and Royal Bank of Scotland [RBS-LN 29.36    0.48  (+1.66%)   ], according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the auction is private. Bids are due on Wednesday, and a winner will likely be identified by Friday, the people said.

A New York Fed spokesman declined to comment. BlackRock, the asset manager whose BlackRock Solutions unit is leading the sale, also declined to comment.

The auction will be the second major sale of the year of assets held by the New York Fed in a vehicle known as Maiden Lane II, which absorbed A.I.G.’s soured residential mortgage-backed securities after the 2008 bailout. Last month, Credit Suisse won an auction for bonds from the vehicle with a face value of around $7 billion, which it promptly sold to clients including hedge funds and other banks.

The success of that auction led to another bid by one of the five firms for more Maiden Lane II assets, and signaled that the market for residential mortgage-backed securities, the bête noires of the financial crisis, has improved since last year. The New York Fed conducted a sale of some of the Maiden Lane II bonds last June, but had to halt the sale when it created turmoil in the bond market.

The bonds being sold in this auction have a face value of roughly $6 billion, about half the amount remaining in Maiden Lane II, according to the people. The auction was earlier reported by The Wall Street Journal.

Greek Premier Seeks Bailout Consensus Amid Political Quarrels

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is set to negotiate with leaders of the political parties supporting his caretaker government after Athens missed another deadline to secure a second aid package.

Papademos will see the chiefs in Athens today after delaying the meeting for a second time in as many days while Greek officials and international creditors haggle over the terms. Late last night, he held an unscheduled meeting with the so-called troika, comprising the European Commission, the European Central Bank and theInternational Monetary Fund, to put the final touches on terms required for a 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) rescue package.

Yesterday’s delay was yet another hitch in completing a package that’s been on the table since July. The government is struggling to arrange financing to avert a collapse of the economy, risking a new round of contagion in the euro area. With the country facing a 14.5 billion-euro bond payment on March 20, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned this week that “time is running out” to reach an accord.

The tussling in Athens threatens to hold up a critical element of the second financing package: a debt swap that will slice 100 billion euros off more than 200 billion euros of privately-held debt. The rescue blueprint includes a loss of more than 70 percent for bondholders in the voluntary debt exchange as well as loans that will probably exceed the 130 billion euros now on the table.

Greek Bonds

The ECB is prepared to swap its holdings of Greek government bondsto contribute to a reduction of the country’s debt burden, Dow Jones reported yesterday, citing unidentified people briefed on the talks. The agreement could reduce Greece’s debt by as much as 11 billion euros, Dow Jones said.

A formal offer for the debt swap must be made by Feb. 13 to allow all procedures to be completed before the March 20 bond comes due. Parliament may be called to vote on the terms of the writedown on Feb. 12, state-runs Athens News Agency reported yesterday, without saying how it got the information.

The euro touched an eight-week high against the dollar today, reaching $1.3287. European stocks advanced, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.3 percent after two days of losses. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also rose.

‘Constructive’ Negotiations

Papademos met last night for “constructive” talks with Charles Dallara, managing director of the International Institute of Finance, which has negotiated the terms of the swap, and Deutsche Bank AG ChairmanJosef Ackermann, according to an IIF statement.

Creditors are prepared to accept an average coupon of as low as 3.6 percent on new 30-year bonds in the exchange, said a person familiar with the talks, who declined to be identified because a final deal hasn’t been struck yet.

While the prime minister and party chiefs have agreed to make further cuts this year equal to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product, they have yet to close gaps over measures demanded by creditors for the rescue. Unions, which struck yesterday, have derided the conditions as “blackmail.”

“There is a path here for Greece, there is a way out for Greece, if it wants to take it but there’s no denying this will be tough,” Grant Lewis, an economist at Daiwa Capital Europe Ltd. inLondon, said in a radio interview with Bloomberg’s Ken Prewitt yesterday. “You are talking about multi-year austerity packages against a backdrop of an economy that’s shrinking very rapidly.”

Final Draft

A Greek official said yesterday the government and international creditors were close to a final draft of an agreement on budget and structural measures needed to extend the financial lifeline. Another official said earlier yesterday talks were focused on how to make up for a 550 million-euro shortfall in new austerity measures for this year.

At stake is whether Greece wins the bailout, secures a debt write-off with private creditors and remains in the euro region. Failure and the country’s bankruptcy, means even greater sacrifice, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos has warned.

With elections due as early as April, Greek political leaders are arguing over demands such as ensuring the viability of pension funds and reducing wage- and non-wage costs to boost competitiveness.

Second Bailout

Efforts to win a second bailout from the troika have hung in the balance over the past five days as lenders demand officials sign up to measures ranging from a cut in the minimum wage, lower pensions and immediate layoffs for as many as 15,000 state employees.

Merkel said the impact of a Greek exit from the euro would be “incalculable,” and restated her determination to keep Greece in the single currency region.

“I don’t want Greece to leave the euro and therefore the question doesn’t arise,” Merkel said. “I won’t take part in any effort to push Greece out of the euro. It would have incalculable consequences.”

Even so, Merkel said that there is “no way around” Greece carrying out reforms. Greece is in a “very complicated situation”, she said.

Greek Recession

The troika argues that lower wage costs and pension cuts are among reforms necessary to boost competitiveness in the country. Those opposed say the cuts would deepen the country’s recession, now in its fifth year.

Antonis Samaras, the head of the second-biggest party, New Democracy, has indicated he will oppose measures that will deepen the country’s downturn. George Karatzaferis, the head ofLaos, one of the three supporting Papademos, said he would seek assurances that the measures would lead the country out of the crisis.

Guarantees from Greek leaders such as Samaras, who is ahead in opinion polls, are key to securing the funds. International lenders want assurances that whoever wins the next election will stick to pledges made now to receive financing.

Samaras’s party has 31 percent support from voters, according to a Public Issue poll, compared with 8 percent for the socialist Pasok party, which is the biggest party in the current parliament. The survey of 1,002 Greeks showed a growing number of Greeks wanting elections immediately and waning support both for Papademos and the parties that back him.

Nissan Quarterly Profit Up on Brisk Sales, Keeps Forecasts

Nissan Motor posted a 3.6 percent rise in quarterly operating profit on Wednesday on the back of brisk car sales worldwide and kept its full-year forecasts unchanged at the highest level among Japan's top automakers.

Japan's No.2 automaker earned an operating profit of 118.1 billion yen ($1.54 billion) in the October-December quarter, slightly below the average estimate of 122.6 billion yen from 10 analysts polled by Reuters.

Nissan reports under Japanese accounting standards, with earnings from China included in operating income. Net profit rose 3.2 percent to 82.67 billion yen.

Among Japan's three leading automakers, Nissan was fastest to recover from both the earthquake last March and flooding in Thailand that disrupted supply chains, swiftly sourcing parts from its global network. The popularity of new models such as the Rogue and Juke crossovers also helped.

For the year to March 31, Nissan kept its operating profit forecast at 510 billion yen, below the consensus forecast of 547 billion yen in a poll of 25 analysts by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. It kept its net profit forecast at 290 billion yen.

Japanese market leader Toyota [TM  79.61    1.90  (+2.44%)   ] has forecast annual net profit of 200 billion yen and third-ranked Honda Motor [HMC  36.14   0.28  (+0.78%)   ] has predicted profit of 215 billion yen.

Both report under U.S. accounting rules, with earnings from China included in net income.

Nokia to Cut 4,000 Jobs, Shift Phone Production to Asia

Nokia Oyj, the world’s largest maker of mobile phones, will cut about 4,000 jobs in its factories in Hungary, Mexico and Finland to speed up the delivery of devices and get closer to suppliers.

Device assembly is expected to be transferred to factories in Asia, where the majority of component suppliers are based, Nokia said in a statement. The Salo, Finland plant, established in 1979, makes smartphones for European markets.

Chief Executive Officer Stephen Elop unveiled his strategy for the company a year ago this week with the announcement Nokia would manufacture handsets running Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Phone software. The Salo plant was spared from the first rounds of job cuts and outsourcing deals, which hit engineers working on Nokia Symbian smartphone software that was being ramped down in favor of Windows Phone.

The company’s smartphone sales declined 25 percent to 77.3 million units last year as customers shunned the Symbian line. Nokia, based in Espoo, Finland, introduced its Lumia handsets running Windows Phone six weeks before the end of the year and said on Jan. 26 that it had sold “well over 1 million” of the devices “to date.”

Nokia also makes smartphones in Beijing and South Korea, and said Dec. 1 it will start making the Lumia 710 at its plant in Manaus, Brazil. The first shipments of Lumia handsets were made at a Compal Communications Inc. (8078) factory in Taiwan.

Nokia has nine handset factories including one under construction in Hanoi, according to its website. Last month it sold a shuttered Romanian plant to De’Longhi SpA, an Italian maker of kitchen equipment, saying the low end phones made at the plant were better produced closer to suppliers and large markets.

The Salo factory, as well as the plants in Komarom, Hungary and Reynosa, Mexico, were placed under review and could be shifted from assembly and packaging, Nokia said Sept. 29.

Yuan: US Sees Some Yuan Flexibility, Wants More - CNBC

China is starting to let its yuan currency rise more rapidly to curb inflation but needs to move even more swiftly toward a market-driven exchange rate, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Tuesday.

Speaking ahead of top-level talks with Chinese officials in Washington next week, Geithner also said Beijing should stop favoring its giant state-owned enterprises by keeping their borrowing costs low and warned it may face a protectionist backlash if it does not do so.

Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton co-chair two days of talks next Monday and Tuesday with China's Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo.

The once-a-year Strategic and Economic Dialogue covers various economic and diplomatic issues but currency tensions are always on the agenda. U.S. manufacturers complain China's managed yuan gives its producers an unfair trade advantage.

Geithner said the yuan [CNY= 6.4955 -0.001 (-0.02%) ] has risen about five percent against the dollar since last June when Beijing loosened a peg on its value and suggested that China's knowledge that it must let it rise more to fight inflation was to U.S. advantage.

"Fundamental forces are now operating in an overwhelming direction of encouraging China to to let the exchange rate move more rapidly in response to market forces," he told the U.S.-China Business Council. "If they don't do there is greater risk that inflation accelerates."

Inflation Spur

In the past, Beijing has resisted U.S. pressure on the yuan, arguing that too fast a rise in its currency could upset economic stability. Geithner suggested China needs to reassess that policy.

"There are risks in gradualism, not just risks in moving, and China has to figure out how to balance those risks," he said.

China's central bank guided the yuan up by 0.9 percent against the dollar in April compared with 0.4 percent in March, accelerating its appreciation as the dollar fell to three-year lows against a basket of currencies.

The U.S. Treasury was scheduled to issue a semi-annual report on April 15 on the currency practices of U.S. trade partners that, in theory, could have labeled China a foreign exchange manipulator.

It has been delayed indefinitely and it is likely the Obama administration will opt for continued verbal persuasion but avoid harsher actions such as saying that China deliberately keeps the yuan undervalued to gain a trade edge.

"Our judgment is that it would be better for the world, more fair for us and I think in China's interest to let the exchange rate appreciate more rapidly than they've been doing," Geithner said. "Hopefully they'll make that same judgment and feel more confident now as they see inflation accelerating."

Geithner took aim at China's practice of fostering so-called "national champions" among its industrial sector — essentially state-owned companies that compete globally.

By controlling bank deposit and loan rates, China effectively channels low-cost loans to state-owned enterprises, known as SOEs, and gives them an advantage over both domestic and private firms.

"The financial distortions that give preferential advantages to SOEs add to trade tension and to calls for protection among China's trade partners," Geithner said.

U.S. Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats also blasted China for pumping up the ability of state-owned companies to a receptive audience at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a frequent critic of Chinese currency and trade practices.

He said 41 Chinese state-owned enterprises made the 2010 list of the 500 biggest companies in the world, and three made the top 100.

"It's imperative that our companies have a level playing field on which to compete, not just in China but around the world," Hormats said. He added the United States would press in both bilateral and multilateral forums for rules establishing a "competitively neutral environment" for state-owned enterprises in China.

Bin Laden Compound Likely to Reveal Al Qaeda Contributors - CNBC

Computers taken from Osama Bin Laden's Pakistan compound could reveal a motherlode of information on Al Qaeda donors and has probably already dealt a serious blow to Al Qaeda fund raising, according to a Middle East law expert.

George State University College of Law professor Jack Williams said new data, potentially in hard drives and other materials taken by the U.S. special forces, could reveal a new list of Al Qaeda contributors. Williams also works for Mesirow Financial as a senior managing director and company practice leader in investigative services.

"In many prior situations, where we have captured and/or captured and killed a high level target, particularly those who have been in place for a little while, we found computers with that type of information, and we've been able to glean a lot about the financial structure, flow of funds an the mechanisms by which Al Qaeda and groups raised funds to finance their activity," he said.

Williams said there have been at least four jihadi fatwas issued since the death of Bin Laden. While none were major, one was a fund raising plea. Fatwas are religious decrees issued by a cleric.

"I think there are going to be some companies that are concerned, not necessarily with their names showing up but with the names of their agents or vendors, suppliers or customers, on that Al Qaeda list," said Williams.

"The folks whose names are in those computers as substantial contributors to Al Qaeda causes — they nonetheless will pull back into the shadows to at least assure they don't cause any new undo attention that might be drawn to them. It will have an affect on their donor rate," said Williams.

Williams said Bin Laden was not the biggest contributor but his image was an important selling point, used around the world in places where Al Qaeda is active. "He was certainly the image around which the Al Qaeda mother ship surrounded itself. He was in a fund raising capacity both an emissary and an image," he said.

Whether pictures of Bin Laden, after he was killed, would be useful to Al Qaeda is unclear, but Williams expects the U.S. government to ultimately release them. The question authorities are grappling with is "will disclosing these pictures put more American lives at risk."

CNBC's Fast Money: Weiss: I Was At Ground Zero On 9/11 but I’m Still Not Trading on Bin Laden - CNBC

My wife was the first to see the news.

She was very happy, much more so than I was, perhaps because she was in the dark on 9/11 as to my whereabouts, while I knew exactly where I was—at Lehman Brothers headquarters across the street from the World Trade Center.

It took a couple of hours before I could get through to her, but the uncertainty was such a small price to pay versus the sacrifice of others.

Four months later, the FBI was in my driveway as my wife came home from picking the kids up at school. They wanted to know why I didn’t show up for Flight 93, my relatively last-minute decision not to make a business trip to San Francisco. It beat any investment decision I ever made.

I often still wonder why I had never realized I was to be on that flight that day until the FBI told my family. Every night from then on, as I put my daughters to bed, they would ask me to promise them that I wouldn’t be flying the next day.

I was back at work early on 9/12 in our administrative offices across the Hudson River in Jersey City, N.J. I was there with 20 others trying to figure out how we were going to stay in business while watching our building burn across the river.

The air was still acrid and ashes floated above us the following day as I returned to the Ground Zero neighborhood with a colleague to look at vacant office space offered to us by another company. But the firm quickly decided that we couldn’t bring our people back to that area.

Of course, Lehman stayed in business through hard work and teamwork, only to ultimately be brought down by a much stealthier attacker: the twin forces of leverage and greed.

While Bin Laden’s death is a cause for celebration, it is perhaps more a day for reflection and gratitude for those who have given their lives, both innocently and in service of our country.

But Bin Laden’s death is not an investible event unless the satisfaction of his demise leads to a more optimistic outlook from a personal standpoint. But I would caution against this approach, since the first lesson of investing is that there is no place for emotion in analysis.

In order to justify trading off this event, one must assume that Bin Laden had some influence upon the markets that has now been eradicated—and that’s not the case.

Stock Market and Investing: Silver's Shine Is Fading Fast - CNBC

Silver's shine is fading fast, and the market for the precious metal may have reached a top in a speculative, mad dash by ETF investors.

"The last move higher over the last month or so has really been driven by the strength of the retail investment demand, so the levels up here are not supported," said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst with Barclays Capital.

"At levels above $40, we've seen some concern rising on the industrial demand side. The last leg higher has been investment-driven, rather than fundamentally supported. In that respect, the correction was due. I would say from a demand support point of view, we have levels that have been tested in other metals, but we haven't had a chance to test that in silver," said Cooper. "I think now prices are going to test where physical support comes in."

Silver [SICV1 41.055 -1.521 (-3.57%) ] has tumbled in the last two days, with Comex futures losing 10 percent on Tuesday alone, and the July contract finishing at $42.585 an ounce. Silver came within reach of $50 an ounce last week, and its all time nominal high, just above that level. The popular iShares Silver Trust ETF [SLV 40.58 -2.25 (-5.25%) ] lost more than 5 percent Tuesday, on volume of more than 211 million shares.

Moves by the CME to curb speculative buying with three increases in margin requirements in the last week have helped cool the metal's run.

"When something's on fire, there's lots of finger pointing. You've seen it in oil, and you're seeing it now of course in silver," said John Stephenson of First Asset Investment Management, in an interview on "Fast Money," in response to a question on the increase in margin requirements. Stephenson does not think silver's best days are behind it, and he expects the metal to reach $60 an ounce by year's end.

"The last two days have been pretty disappointing for people like me who are bullish silver," he said. But he added the world's awash in money looking for a home and gold [GCCV1 1536.70 -3.70 (-0.24%) ] and silver will continue to be magnets for it.

A larger-than-expected interest rate hike Tuesday by India and a slowing in Chinese manufacturing data earlier this week also led to selling in silver, which helped pull down other commodities. Commodities were also lower with emerging markets, on growth concerns.

Silver, up 150 percent since August, has been one hot commodity and it has been dubbed the "poor man's gold," as investors flocked to it while gold prices rose to $1500 and higher.

On the industrial side, silver is used in photography, solar panels, cell phones, computers and cars, in addition to jewelry. Cooper said at $50 an ounce, silver becomes 16 to 17 percent of the cost of producing a thin film solar panel.

Cooper said the latest buying frenzy was driven by investments in ETFs and silver coins and bars. At the end of April, for instance, eight silver ETFs held 15,486 tons of the metal, up from 14,582 tons in February. The April total was up just 10 tons from March, but at the same time, speculative accounts declined.

Speculators, which would include hedge funds, held 3,887 tons as of April 26, down 1,877 tons since Feb. 8. The all-time high for speculative holdings was 10,904 tons in late 2004, she said

"At the moment, the floor is going to be provided by a pickup again in retail investor interest, or it's going to be provided as we've seen in other metals, where physical demand comes in to buy support," she said.

Why High Gas Price Effects May Be Different This Time - CNBC

Kelsea Hanrahan spends a lot of time on the road.

The Long island, N.Y., consultant gets reimbursed 50 cents a mile for gas from her job. That used to net her an extra $50 a week in pocket change.

"I was pocketing money because my car is fuel-efficient, but now most of it's just going to the extra gas price," she says.

Brian Park doesn't have that luxury.

The Fort Lee, N.J., lawyer and his wife cut back on their driving and recently gave up their gym memberships to offset the extra $60 a month they're paying in gas costs.

"When I hear from the news that the gas price will skyrocket above $4 per gallon it freaks me out," Park confided as he filled up his Honda.

With the average price of regular gasoline now hovering near $3.80 a gallon nationally, prices at the pump are nearly a dollar higher than a year ago.

For the average American who drives about about 15,000 miles a year and uses roughly 750 gallons of gas annually, that dollar increase per gallon has eaten about a $750 hole into the household budget per car.

Americans have seen prices this high at the pump before, during the spike in 2008. Analysts expect to see the same kind of individual spending cutbacks we saw then.

"In 2008 we spent 12 months with gas above $3," and that resulted in notable changes in consumer spending choices, says David Portalatin of NPD Group. "Nearly half reduced their gas consumption by consolidated shopping trips, 29 percent cancelled or modified vacations, 25 percent found alternatives to driving. The more sustained price spike, the greater the impact."

Perhaps because consumers have traveled this road before, some analysts say this time around the impact may not be as pronounced across middle-class and higher-income consumers as it was in 2008.

Retail analyst Rich Hastings says retailers like Macy's [M 24.68 -0.03 (-0.12%) ], Costco [COST 76.41 -0.04 (-0.05%) ] and Bed Bath and Beyond [BBBY 54.52 0.46 (+0.85%) ] have done well in recent months, because their consumers tend to be more affluent. Hastings sees a battle royale looming for lower-end consumers between Wal-Mart [WMT 53.63 0.11 (+0.21%) ] and the dollar stores.

In 2008, price-conscious consumers traded down from the retailing giant to the dollar stores, and he says they've not really come back. This week Wal-Mart announced it would match its competitors' low-prices.

Hastings believes this time around the nation's largest retailer will be very aggressive to fight for market share.

"If they want to get really nasty they could keep those prices even lower and force other retailers to go even lower and force other retailers to go through margin compression, and mark-down deduction expenses," he says.

For online and catalog retailers like Amazon, [AMZN 182.29 1.81 (+1%) ] Overstock.com [OSTK 14.51 0.36 (+2.54%) ] and LL Bean that often entice customers with flat-rate and free shipping, higher freight costs could also pose a threat to margins, says James Matthews, a business parcel shipment consultant with Source Consulting.

"The trickle down can be considerable," Matthews says. "A lot more people are buying online. Companies can only absorb that charge for so long without having to increase the prices somewhere."

Yet, as oil futures have climbed back above $100 a barrel, this time around shipping fuel surcharges at FedEx [FDX 93.43 -0.65 (-0.69%) ] and UPS [UPS 72.61 -0.62 (-0.85%) ] are not as steep as they were when oil prices were at the same level in 2008.

In April three years ago air freight surcharges were close to 20 percent ,according to Source Consulting Research. This month, the air surcharge is hovering at around 11 percent.

"In recent years, when FedEx increased shipping rates, it also partially offset the increase by adjusting the threshold at which the fuel surcharge begins," says Jess Bunn of FedEx investor relations.

This time around, already accustomed to paying higher prices, customers may be feeling a little less sticker shock and be better prepared to make alternatives.

That expectation prices will rise is what really worries economists such as Nicolas Colas of ConvergEx.

While the Fed has said it believes the inflationary impact of the energy price is transitory, Colas says they have to be concerned that inflation psychology may become more fixed.

"The Fed knows they have to worry about inflationary expectations," Colas says. "Once you lose control of that psychology as a central bank you're in a tough spot." Colas thinks people are close to that point.

Consultant Kelsea Hanrahan certainly is. She's bracing for gas to top $4 a gallon this summer.

"I'm expecting it," she says. "That's where it seems to be heading."

Mad Money's Jim Cramer on CNBC: Cramer Explains What's Key to This Market - CNBC

Cramer on Tuesday marveled at how the market continues to push higher despite a long list of negative economic news.

"For the first time in a long time we're witnessing true bull market behavior where buyers don't scare easily and are willing to massively overpay anything with growth," Cramer said. "There's a shortage of, well, fright."

Consider Chipotle Mexican Grill [CMG 266.12 8.16 (+3.16%) ], which has seen shares soar. Investors continue to pay 39 times earnings for the stock, even though one would think it's dependent on consumer confidence, housing, net worth and lower gas prices. Yet the stock continues to go up. So long as Chipotle has earnings momentum, Cramer thinks growth-orientated hedge funds will continue buying shares. The second it loses that momentum, however, he expects the stock to fall sharply.

"Chipotle just won't go down, won't take a dive because that's what happens in a bona fide bull market," Cramer said. "In every bull market I've ever seen there have been anointed stocks, stocks that can do no wrong, stocks that make no sense to anyone but the people who buy them."

This rally is not about Chipotle, though. It's about the mechanics of the market. When it comes to fast food operators, Cramer would rather own McDonald's [MCD 75.37 0.37 (+0.49%) ], but he respects the buying power. That's important because in this market, money mangers don't care about price-to-earnings multiples. They care about growth. Hedge funds care so much about growth that they are willing to pay up for it.

"Recognize the power not just of the growth story, but of the undeterred buyers who are about to get a whole new influx of cash to propel Chipotle and other momentum names ever higher," Cramer said. "That's the key to this market."

Stock Market and Investing: Jobs on the Horizon as Market Drifts Higher Into Quarter-End - CNBC

Markets are already looking ahead to Friday's March jobs report as the next directional driver.

Stocks Tuesday floated higher in thin volume trading, with the biggest gainers the telecom and energy sectors. The Dow was up 81 at 12,278 and the S&P 500 was 9 points higher at 1319.

The dollar was also higher and bond prices were depressed, in part on comments from hawkish Fed officials that suggested the Fed should end its easy money policies sooner rather than later.

"It all comes down to Friday and the non-farm payrolls," said Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex. "What if it comes in at 120,000, or 130,000, and unemployment goes back up to 9 percent? There's going to be a tremendous amount of resistance on the part of the FOMC to give it up." Economists expect about 200,000 jobs for March.

Dollar-yen was also higher Tuesday, surpassing the levels it hit after G-7 central banks intervened against the yen March 18.

"Since Plosser and Bullard, we have had 150 point rally. You can call this the second intervention — the Plosser-Bullard intervention," said Schlossberg. He was referring to Friday's comments from Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's comments, made today and over the weekend.

For Wednesday, investors are watching the ADP private sector payroll report for signals about Friday's jobs report. It is released at 8:15 a.m. The Challenger jobs report is released at 7:30 a.m. There is also another Treasury auction at 1 p.m. of $29 billion in 7-year notes. Wednesday's Fed speakers include Bullard, who is in London, and Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who also speaks in London before the New York market open.

While bonds saw selling, stocks rose with little explanation Tuesday. Traders in the stock market dismissed comments from Bullard that the Fed could cut short its quantitative easing program. But the stock market has also ignored more trouble for banks in Europe and Japan's problems with its leaking nuclear power plant.

Another potential negative for stocks was the consumer confidence report but the market moved past it. As gasoline prices rose, consumer confidence fell to a weaker than expected 63.4 in March, after hitting a three-year high of 72 in February.

"Black swans are swimming in flocks now," quipped Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. Traders have expected stocks to move higher into the end of the quarter Thursday, as portfolio managers shuffle holdings.

"One of the metrics we use is cash on the sidelines, and it's still nearly 25 percent of the capitalization of the stock market that's sitting on the sidelines in cash...that could be filtering in. Every day this goes on, it might be convincing these retail investors to be in there," said Ablin.

"Everyone's bemoaning the large government involvement, but that's what's keeping this going," he said. "We're getting pretty cautious here."

Earnings reports are expected Wednesday from Family Dollar [FDO 52.40 1.00 (+1.95%) ] and Signet Jewelers [SIG 44.80 0.85 (+1.93%) ]. Mosaic [MOS 78.85 1.18 (+1.52%) ] reports after the closing bell.

In Washington, the House Financial Services' Oversight and Government Reform subcommittee meets on TARP. The Senate Appropriations Energy and Water subcommittee holds a hearing on nuclear safety.

The Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry meets on high gasoline prices, and the House Financial Services Oversight and Investigations subcommittee meets on the cost of implementing Dodd Frank